{"base_url":"https://52etf.net/","categories":[{"count":4,"description":"中美货币存量(M1/M2/社融/美联储资产负债表)、CPI/PCE/PPI通胀与全球宏观先行指标","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/","rel_permalink":"/01-macro-money/","section":"01-macro-money","stale_count":1,"title":"01-macro-money · 中美货币存量与宏观经济指数"},{"count":3,"description":"原油/天然气/GSCI能源指数、联合国FAO粮食谷物指数、CBOT农产品与全球CPI构成对比","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/","rel_permalink":"/02-commodities-cpi/","section":"02-commodities-cpi","stale_count":0,"title":"02-commodities-cpi · 能源指数、粮食指数与CPI通胀"},{"count":3,"description":"中美2Y/10Y/30Y国债利差、离岸在岸人民币汇率与掉期、美元指数及人民币短期债比例监控","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/","rel_permalink":"/03-bonds-fx/","section":"03-bonds-fx","stale_count":0,"title":"03-bonds-fx · 国债收益率、外汇与人民币短债比例"},{"count":3,"description":"中国居民住户贷款vs 18万亿银行信贷对比、70城房价与租售比、美国Case-Shiller房价与30Y按揭利率","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/","rel_permalink":"/04-realestate/","section":"04-realestate","stale_count":0,"title":"04-realestate · 中美房地产见底观测指标"},{"count":9,"description":"Hyperliquid链上多空与资金费率、BTC/ETH现货ETF流向、ETH/BTC汇率、AHR999、RHODL比率、MVRV Z-Score与CBBI复合指标、URPD链上筹码分布、链上手续费异常Z-Score、稳定币存量","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/","section":"05-crypto","stale_count":0,"title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)"},{"count":4,"description":"Tesla(TSLA)与SpaceX(SPCX/DXYZ)多空持仓数据、中美宽基PB/PE历史分位、公募季报与SEC 13F机构持仓","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/","rel_permalink":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/","section":"06-equity-tsla-spcx","stale_count":1,"title":"06-equity-tsla-spcx · 权益估值PB/PE、Tesla/SpaceX多空与基金持仓"},{"count":3,"description":"跨周期再平衡矩阵、VaR/最大回撤公式、波动率目标模型、WebMCP与404.txt自动校准接口","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/","rel_permalink":"/07-tools-strategy/","section":"07-tools-strategy","stale_count":1,"title":"07-tools-strategy · 策略数学模型与Agent工具链"}],"content_signal":"search=yes, ai-input=yes, ai-train=no","count":29,"endpoints":{"agent_card_url":"https://52etf.net/.well-known/agent.json","broken_and_stale_report_url":"https://52etf.net/404.txt","home_markdown":"https://52etf.net/index.md","llms_full_txt":"https://52etf.net/llms-full.txt","llms_txt":"https://52etf.net/llms.txt","mcp_manifest_url":"https://52etf.net/.well-known/mcp.json","sitemap_url":"https://52etf.net/sitemap.xml"},"generated_at":"2026-10-25T12:00:00+08:00","items":[{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/","ext_url":"https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_all/mvrv_all_light.html","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-mvrv-cbbi/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-mvrv-cbbi/","raw_markdown":"\n### BTC MVRV、周期包络拟合核实与 CBBI / 12 因子复合指标拆解\n\n- **MVRV 与 MVRV Z-Score 标准计算公式（Murad Mahmudov \u0026 David Puell, 2018）**：\n  - `MVRV Ratio = Market Cap (流通总市值) / Realized Cap (已实现总市值)`\n  - `MVRV Z-Score = (Market Cap - Realized Cap) / StdDev(Market Cap)`\n  - **Realized Cap 口径说明**：按链上每个 UTXO **最后一次发生链上转移时的价格**加权计算总价值，作为全市场链上持仓总成本的近似代理（不含中心化交易所内部撮合换手，但包含交易所充提与冷钱包划转）。\n  - **历史经验分位**：\n    - `MVRV \u003c 1.0`（或 `MVRV Z-Score \u003c 0`）：流通市值跌破链上已实现总成本，对应历史宏观熊市底部区。\n    - `MVRV ≈ 2.2 ~ 2.3`：对应历史上减半前/复苏期阶段性高点（2012、2016、2019、2024 年一季度）。\n    - `MVRV \u003e 3.5`（或 `MVRV Z-Score \u003e 7.0`，随周期边际衰减）：历史大周期顶部过热区。\n- **MVRV 大周期包络线函数拟合的数学核实**：\n  - 针对链上研究中常见的周期顶底双曲线拟合（以创世以来天数 `x` 为自变量，上轨采用负指数衰减 `y_top = 3.41075 + 4.43171 × e^(-0.00060602x)`，下轨采用对数函数 `y_bottom = -0.55448 + 0.161056 × ln(x)`）：\n  - **数学性质纠偏**：\n    1. 上轨并非发散的 `e^x`，而是**负指数衰减函数** `a + b·e^(-cx)`，当 `x → ∞` 时收敛于水平渐近线 `y = a`（如 `3.41`）。\n    2. 下轨对数函数 `ln(x)` 在 `x → ∞` 时单调递增趋向 `+∞`（**在数学上无上界、不收敛**），因此常数渐近上轨与对数递增下轨在长期**必然相交**，并非“无限收敛不相交函数”。\n    3. 比特币历史仅有 3–4 个完整减半周期大顶，用 3 参数非线性方程拟合 4 个极值点属于经验包络参考，若未来周期峰值 MVRV 低于渐近常数 `3.41`，固定渐近线将失效。\n- **CBBI (ColinTalksCrypto Bitcoin Bull Run Index) 与 12 因子复合指标对比**：\n  - **CBBI 公开 9 因子复合指数（0–100 分）**：等权整合 9 个公开链上与趋势指标：`Pi Cycle Top`、`RUPL/NUPL`、`RHODL Ratio`、`Puell Multiple`、`2-Year MA`、`Bitcoin Trolololo Trend Line`、`MVRV Z-Score`、`Reserve Risk`、`Woobull Top Cap vs CVDD`。通常 `\u003c 15` 为周期底部区间，`\u003e 80~90` 为周期顶部预警区。\n  - **社区 12 因子复合脚本（如 TradingView 私有指标 BTI，0–12 分）子因子完整还原**：\n    1. `CVDD`：Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed（累计销毁币天价值）\n    2. `NUPL`：Net Unrealized Profit/Loss（净未实现盈亏比）\n    3. `MVRVZ`：MVRV Z-Score\n    4. `PUELL`：Puell Multiple（矿工日发行价值 / 365日均值，常见笔误写为 `PURLL`）\n    5. `CSI`：Calendar Seasonality Index（日历季节性指数）\n    6. `HSI`：Halving Seasonality Index（减半周期季节性指数）\n    7. `PLR`：Polylog Regression（多对数回归通道，常被文本摘要漏列）\n    8. `RP`：Realized Price Ratio（市价与已实现价格偏离度）\n    9. `PDM`：Price Decay / Distribution Model（价格衰减分布模型）\n    10. `LMACD`：Logarithmic MACD（对数坐标 MACD）\n    11. `PCT`：Pi Cycle Top Indicator（111DMA 与 350DMA×2）\n    12. `TFS`：Trend Following System / Top Signal（趋势跟踪信号）\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - Checkonchain MVRV 全周期图表：\u003chttps://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/unrealised/mvrv_all/mvrv_all_light.html\u003e\n  - CBBI 官方 9 因子复合指数面板：\u003chttps://colintalkscrypto.com/cbbi/\u003e\n  - BGeometrics MVRV Ratio 图表：\u003chttps://charts.bgeometrics.com/mvrv_ratio_dark.html\u003e\n  - BGeometrics MVRV Z-Score 图表：\u003chttps://charts.bgeometrics.com/mvrv_dark.html\u003e\n  - CoinGlass CBBI 中文面板：\u003chttps://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/cbbi-index\u003e\n  - Bitcoin Magazine Pro 子指标（CVDD / Puell / Pi Cycle）：\u003chttps://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/cvdd/\u003e | \u003chttps://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/puell-multiple/\u003e | \u003chttps://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/pi-cycle-top-indicator/\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/btc-mvrv-cbbi/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/btc-mvrv-cbbi/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/btc-mvrv-cbbi.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"btc-mvrv-cbbi","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"MVRV = Market Cap / Realized Cap | MVRV小牛顶经验位 2.2~2.3 / 大底 \u003c1.0 | CBBI 9因子公开复合指数 (0~100分) 与 12因子周期复合指标拆解","tags":["Crypto","BTC","MVRV","CBBI","CVDD","NUPL","Puell Multiple","Pi Cycle"],"title":"BTC MVRV Z-Score 与 CBBI / BTI 周期复合指标 (MVRV \u0026 Composite Cycle Index)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://charts.bgeometrics.com/rhodl_1m_dark.html","ext_url":"https://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/rhodl-ratio/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-rhodl-ratio/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-rhodl-ratio/","raw_markdown":"\n### BTC RHODL 比率 (Realized HODL Ratio) 数学定义、口径核实与周期区间\n\n- **核心数学公式（Philip Swift / LookIntoBitcoin 提出）**：\n  - `RHODL Ratio = (RHODL Wave [1 Week] / RHODL Wave [1–2 Years]) × Market Age (Days)`\n  - 其中 `RHODL Wave` 为 **已实现市值权重波段（Realized Cap HODL Waves）**，即按每个链上 UTXO 最后一次移动时的美元价格加权计算的价值占比；`Market Age` 为自 2010 年比特币产生连续价格记录以来的存续天数。\n- **关键口径核实（已实现价值 vs. 原始持币数量）**：\n  - **已实现价值加权（USD）而非原始币量（BTC）**：部分中文研报将其简述为“链上持币 1 周 BTC 数量与持币 1–2 年 BTC 数量之比”，属于通俗近似；严格公式对比的是 `1 周内移动筹码的已实现美元价值占比` 与 `1–2 年移动筹码的已实现美元价值占比`。由于短期活跃筹码按当前市价计价，而 1–2 年筹码按历史沉淀均价计价，已实现价值加权能显著放大周期顶部短期投机资金涌入的信号。\n  - **市场天数（Market Age）校准因子**：随时间推移，早期永久丢失的 BTC（Lost Coins）与减半后通胀率下降会导致长期持币分母结构性偏大、原始比值峰值逐周期衰减；乘以 `Market Age (Days)` 用于拉平跨周期极值水位。\n- **历史周期参考区间与减半横盘特征**：\n  - `RHODL Ratio \u003c 350`（绿色积累带）：短期链上换手价值相对于 1–2 年沉淀筹码处于极低水平，对应历史宏观周期底部区间。\n  - `RHODL Ratio \u003e 50,000`（红色过热带）：1 周内高价换手资金占比相对 1–2 年长期筹码极度膨胀，对应 2013、2017、2021 等历史周期顶部区域。\n  - **减半周期横盘特征**：历史三轮减半前后（2016 年约 6 个月、2020 年约 9 个月、2024 年 3 月至 10 月约 8 个月），RHODL 指标均出现中枢横盘震荡，反映短期筹码与中长期筹码在减半换手期的再平衡。\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - Bitcoin Magazine Pro (LookIntoBitcoin) RHODL Ratio 官方图表：\u003chttps://www.bitcoinmagazinepro.com/charts/rhodl-ratio/\u003e\n  - BGeometrics RHODL 比率交互图表：\u003chttps://charts.bgeometrics.com/rhodl_1m_dark.html\u003e\n  - BGeometrics Realized Cap HODL Waves 分层图表：\u003chttps://charts.bgeometrics.com/hodl_waves_realized_cap_dark.html\u003e\n  - CoinGlass RHODL Ratio 中文图表：\u003chttps://www.coinglass.com/zh/pro/i/r-hodl-ratio\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/btc-rhodl-ratio/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/btc-rhodl-ratio/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/btc-rhodl-ratio.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"btc-rhodl-ratio","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"公式: (1周Realized Cap HODL Wave / 1-2年Realized Cap HODL Wave) × 市场天数 | 阈值: \u003c350历史积累区 / \u003e50,000周期过热区 | 减半周期6~9个月横盘特征","tags":["Crypto","BTC","RHODL","HODL Waves","链上周期","已实现价值"],"title":"BTC RHODL 比率 (Realized HODL Ratio 短期与中长期已实现价值比)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing","ext_url":"https://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_realized_price_dark.html","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-urpd-distribution/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-urpd-distribution/","raw_markdown":"\n### BTC URPD (UTXO 已实现价格分布) 统计口径与“巨量柱”噪音辨析\n\n- **指标定义与坐标结构**：\n  - **URPD (UTXO Realized Price Distribution)** 统计当前比特币网络中所有未花费交易输出（UTXO）在**最后一次发生链上移动时对应的市场价格区间分布**。\n  - **横轴（X轴）**：UTXO 最后一次移动时的 BTC 美元价格分桶（Price Buckets）；**纵轴（Y轴）**：落在该价格桶内的 BTC 数量（枚）或占流通供应量比例（%）。\n- **核心口径核实：`ATH-Partitioned URPD` vs. `Entity-Adjusted URPD`**：\n  - **1. 原始按历史高点分区 (`URPD ATH-Partitioned`)**：\n    - 将 `$0` 至当前历史最高价（ATH）等分为约 100 个价格桶，直接统计全部原始 UTXO。\n    - **链上归集噪音（重要局限）**：当大型中心化交易所（如 Coinbase、Binance）或 ETF 托管机构在某一价格附近进行**冷热钱包整理、UTXO 合并或托管地址迁移**时，数十万枚存量 BTC 的“最后移动价格”会被瞬间重置为当日市价，在原始 URPD 图表上形成单桶超 50 万~70 万枚 BTC 的“巨量柱”。此类巨量柱大量包含非交易性质的内部划转，**不能直接等同于主力资金的真实建仓或派发成本**。\n  - **2. 实体调整版 (`URPD Entity-Adjusted`)**：\n    - 通过链上聚类算法识别同一实体（同一交易所、托管方或巨鲸实体）名下的关联地址群：同一实体内部的钱包划转**不重置**成本价，且同一实体的持仓按其加权平均成本（Average Cost Basis）计入对应价格桶。\n    - **观测原则**：分析筹码密集换手区（High-Volume Nodes）、支撑带与派发结构时，必须结合 `Entity-Adjusted URPD` 剔除交易所冷钱包归集伪影。\n  - **3. 价格分桶宽度效应（Bucket Width Effect）**：\n    - 在 `ATH-Partitioned` 口径下，随着 BTC 创出新 ATH，每个价格桶跨越的美元宽度成比例扩大，单柱容纳的 BTC 绝对数量天然上升；跨周期对比时应优先观察**占流通量百分比（% of Supply）**而非固定 BTC 枚数阈值。\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - BGeometrics 实时链上已实现价格分布图 (Distribution of Realized Price)：\u003chttps://charts.bgeometrics.com/distribution_realized_price_dark.html\u003e\n  - Phyrex 链上 URPD 持仓价格区间每日变动统计表 (Google Sheets)：\u003chttps://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing\u003e\n  - Checkonchain 已实现价格与筹码成本分布套件：\u003chttps://charts.checkonchain.com/\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/btc-urpd-distribution/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/btc-urpd-distribution/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/btc-urpd-distribution.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"btc-urpd-distribution","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"统计流通BTC最后一次链上移动对应的价格桶分布 | 核心区分: ATH-Partitioned (含交易所归集噪音) vs Entity-Adjusted (实体调整后真实换手成本区)","tags":["Crypto","BTC","URPD","UTXO","筹码分布","已实现价格"],"title":"BTC URPD 链上筹码价格分布 (UTXO Realized Price Distribution)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/adoption/feestotal_btc/feestotal_btc_light.html","ext_url":"https://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/adoption/feerevenue_zscore/feerevenue_zscore_light.html","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-onchain-fee-regime/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/btc-onchain-fee-regime/","raw_markdown":"\n### BTC 链上手续费异常指标（Fee Regime \u0026 Z-Score）计算公式与 2023 年后结构性变迁\n\n- **核心统计指标与计算公式**：\n  - **矿工手续费收入占比 (Fee Share of Miner Revenue)**：\n    - `Fee Share (%) = Daily Transaction Fees (BTC) / [Daily Block Subsidy (BTC) + Daily Transaction Fees (BTC)]`\n  - **手续费收入 Z-Score (Fee Revenue Z-Score, Checkonchain)**：\n    - `Fee Z-Score = (当前链上手续费 - 2年滚动均值) / 2年滚动标准差`\n    - 当 `Z-Score \u003e +2.0` 时表征区块空间需求出现显著正偏态异常（拥堵脉冲）；当 `Z-Score \u003c -0.5` 时表征链上结算需求清淡。\n  - **大额手续费分档统计 (Dune `Bitcoin Big Fee`)**：\n    - 按单笔交易费率/金额分档（`\u003e100`、`\u003e200`、`\u003e300`、`\u003e400`）统计高优交易在全网交易中的占比变化。\n- **历史有效性核实与 2023–2026 年结构性失真辨析**：\n  - **1. 2018–2022 年（纯货币转账主导期 —— 高度相关）**：\n    - 在此阶段，比特币区块空间几乎完全用于 BTC 现货转账与交易所充提。每当出现趋势加速、恐慌抛售或牛市见顶（如 2019 年 5–8 月反弹、2020 年 10 月主升浪启动、2021 年 4 月高点），链上争夺区块确认会导致手续费脉冲式飙升，手续费异常与大级别价格拐点吻合度较高。\n  - **2. 2023–2024 年（Ordinals 铭文 / BRC-20 / Runes 符文导致的非金融脉冲失真）**：\n    - 2023 年 5 月（BRC-20 铸造潮）、2023 年 11–12 月（Ordinals 铭文热潮）以及 2024 年 4 月减半区块（Runes 符文上线）出现了历史极值级别的链上手续费飙升。此类异常源于**非金融数据写入（Data Inscriptions）抢占区块权重**，而非传统的 BTC 现货趋势见顶或主升浪换手。\n  - **3. 2024–2026 年（现货 ETF 与托管中心化导致的“高币价、低费率”背离）**：\n    - 自 2024 年 1 月美国比特币现货 ETF 上市后，大量机构与散户交易量迁移至美股 ETF 二级市场及中心化交易所内部账本撮合，叠加交易所批量打包（Batching）与闪电网络普及，导致 2024 下半年至 2026 年即使 BTC 价格处于高位区间，链上基础转账费率仍长期处于历史低位（`1–5 sat/vB`）。因此，**在当前市场结构下，链上手续费异常需剔除铭文/符文噪音并结合现货 ETF 成交量共同研判，不可单独作为牛熊顶底的充要条件**。\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - Checkonchain 比特币手续费收入 Z-Score 实时图表：\u003chttps://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/adoption/feerevenue_zscore/feerevenue_zscore_light.html\u003e\n  - Checkonchain 比特币每日链上总手续费 (BTC)：\u003chttps://charts.checkonchain.com/btconchain/adoption/feestotal_btc/feestotal_btc_light.html\u003e\n  - Dune Analytics 比特币大额手续费年度分布面板 (`@marx27`)：\u003chttps://dune.com/marx27/bitcion-transaction-fee\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/btc-onchain-fee-regime/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/btc-onchain-fee-regime/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/btc-onchain-fee-regime.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"btc-onchain-fee-regime","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"公式: Fee Share = Fees / (Subsidy + Fees) | Fee Revenue 2Y Z-Score | 结构性分界: 2018-2022现货拥堵拐点 vs 2023后铭文/符文脉冲与现货ETF链下分流","tags":["Crypto","BTC","链上手续费","Fee Z-Score","矿工收入","区块空间"],"title":"BTC 链上手续费异常与费率 Z-Score (On-Chain Fee Regime \u0026 Z-Score)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://jstdlee.github.io/52etf/llms.txt","ext_url":"https://jstdlee.github.io/52etf/404.txt","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/webmcp-404-agent-calibration-spec/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/webmcp-404-agent-calibration-spec/","raw_markdown":"\n### Cloudflare Agent 规范、WebMCP 工具注册与自动化外链巡检 (`404.txt`)\n\n- **站点主域名与镜像域名**：\n  - **自定义主域名**：`https://52etf.net/`\n  - **GitHub Pages 镜像**：`https://jstdlee.github.io/52etf/`\n  - **GitHub 校准仓库**：\u003chttps://github.com/jstdlee/52etf\u003e\n- **Cloudflare Agent 规范端点 (Markdown for Agents \u0026 Content Signals)**：\n  - **Content-Signal 声明**：`search=yes, ai-input=yes, ai-train=no`（允许搜索引擎索引、允许 RAG/AI 搜索与 Agent 工具调用、禁止基底模型预训练）\n  - **全站单次请求完整 Markdown 语料库 (`/llms-full.txt`)**：`https://52etf.net/llms-full.txt`（1 次 HTTP 请求获取全部 25 个经济/金融/Crypto/地产指标正文、公式与外链）\n  - **精简目录索引 (`/llms.txt`)**：`https://52etf.net/llms.txt`\n  - **结构化 JSON 全量索引 (`/index.json`)**：`https://52etf.net/index.json`（含全部分类、指标元数据、`stale_over_6m` 状态与 `raw_markdown`）\n  - **每页原生 Markdown 孪生页 (`/*/index.md`)**：任意页面 URL 后追加 `index.md`（如 `/index.md`、`/05-crypto/index.md`、`/05-crypto/hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding/index.md`），并在 HTML `\u003chead\u003e` 内通过 `\u003clink rel=\"alternate\" type=\"text/markdown\"\u003e` 暴露\n  - **异常与超期 (\u003e180天) 链接核实报告 (`/404.txt`)**：\u003chttps://jstdlee.github.io/52etf/404.txt\u003e\n- **MCP 与 A2A 发现清单 \u0026 浏览器 WebMCP (`navigator.modelContext`)**：\n  - **MCP 服务描述 (`/.well-known/mcp.json`)**：`https://52etf.net/.well-known/mcp.json`\n  - **A2A Agent Card (`/.well-known/agent.json`)**：`https://52etf.net/.well-known/agent.json`\n  - **浏览器 WebMCP 已注册工具 (`window.MCP_TOOLS` \u0026 `navigator.modelContext`)**：\n    1. `search_indicators({ query, category, tag, include_stale })`\n    2. `get_indicator_detail({ slug_or_url })`\n    3. `get_stale_or_broken_links()`\n    4. `list_categories()`\n","rel_markdown_url":"/07-tools-strategy/webmcp-404-agent-calibration-spec/index.md","rel_permalink":"/07-tools-strategy/webmcp-404-agent-calibration-spec/","repo_file":"content/07-tools-strategy/webmcp-404-agent-calibration-spec.md","section":"07-tools-strategy","section_title":"07-tools-strategy · 策略数学模型与Agent工具链","slug":"webmcp-404-agent-calibration-spec","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"Cloudflare Agent 规范 (/*/index.md + Content-Signal) | 单次全量语料 /llms-full.txt | WebMCP 浏览器工具注册 | CI 自动巡检外链 -\u003e /404.txt","tags":["WebMCP","CloudflareAgent","404.txt","Agent校准","llms.txt","llms-full.txt","sitemap"],"title":"52etf.net 自动化链接核实 (check-links.mjs -\u003e 404.txt) 与 Cloudflare Agent / WebMCP 接口规范"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/hbgyl.html","ext_url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/cn-us-money-supply-m1-m2-walcl/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/cn-us-money-supply-m1-m2-walcl/","raw_markdown":"\n### 中美货币存量与央行资产负债表核心序列\n\n- **中国货币供应量 (月度金融统计序列)**：\n  - **M2 (广义货币存量)**：`309.48 万亿 RMB`（同比 `+6.8%`）\n  - **M1 (狭义货币存量)**：`66.21 万亿 RMB`（同比 `-3.1%`）\n  - **M1 - M2 同比剪刀差**：`-9.9 个百分点`\n  - **社会融资规模存量 (TSF Stock)**：`402.15 万亿 RMB`（同比 `+8.0%`）\n- **美国货币供应量与美联储流动性 (FRED 周度/月度序列)**：\n  - **US M2 Money Stock (`WM2NS` / `M2SL`)**：`$21.24 Trillion USD`（同比 `+2.4%`）\n  - **Fed Total Assets (`WALCL`)**：`$7.04 Trillion USD`\n  - **隔夜逆回购余额 (`RRPONTSYD`)**：`$0.26 Trillion USD`\n  - **财政部一般账户 (`WTREGEN` TGA)**：`$0.81 Trillion USD`\n  - **美元净流动性公式**：`Net Liquidity = WALCL - TGA - ON RRP = $5.97 Trillion USD`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - 美国 M2 存量 (FRED `WM2NS`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WM2NS\u003e\n  - 中国货币供应量 M0/M1/M2 历史序列 (已替换原超时链接)：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/hbgyl.html\u003e\n  - 中国社会融资规模增量与存量序列：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/shrzgm.html\u003e\n  - 美联储总资产 (FRED `WALCL`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WALCL\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/01-macro-money/cn-us-money-supply-m1-m2-walcl/index.md","rel_permalink":"/01-macro-money/cn-us-money-supply-m1-m2-walcl/","repo_file":"content/01-macro-money/cn-us-money-supply-m1-m2-walcl.md","section":"01-macro-money","section_title":"01-macro-money · 中美货币存量与宏观经济指数","slug":"cn-us-money-supply-m1-m2-walcl","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"中国M2存量 309.48万亿RMB (+6.8% YoY) | 中国M1 66.21万亿RMB (-3.1% YoY) | 美国M2 $21.24T (+2.4% YoY) | 美联储总资产WALCL $7.04T","tags":["货币存量","M2","M1","美联储资产负债表","中国宏观","美国宏观"],"title":"中美货币存量对比：中国M1/M2/社融存量 vs 美国M2/美联储资产负债表(WALCL)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.eia.gov/dnav/pet/pet_pri_spt_s1_d.htm","ext_url":"https://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/global-energy-index-crude-natgas-gsci/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/global-energy-index-crude-natgas-gsci/","raw_markdown":"\n### 全球能源价格指数与库存周期数据\n\n- **核心能源基准价格与指数**：\n  - **WTI 原油 (`DCOILWTICO`)**：`$71.40 / 桶`\n  - **Brent 布伦特原油 (`DCOILBRENTEU`)**：`$75.20 / 桶`\n  - **Henry Hub 天然气 (`DHHNGSP`)**：`$2.45 / MMBtu`\n  - **美湾裂解价差 (3-2-1 Crack Spread)**：`$18.60 / 桶`\n  - **S\u0026P GSCI Energy Index (标普高盛能源商品指数)**：`542.8 点`\n- **美国能源信息署 (EIA) 库存周度/月度数据**：\n  - 美国商业原油库存 (不含SPR)：`420.6 Million Barrels`\n  - 美国战略石油储备 (SPR `WCSSTUS1`)：`383.9 Million Barrels`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - 美国能源信息署 (EIA Weekly Petroleum Status)：\u003chttps://www.eia.gov/petroleum/supply/weekly/\u003e\n  - FRED WTI原油价格序列：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILWTICO\u003e\n  - FRED Brent原油价格序列：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DCOILBRENTEU\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/02-commodities-cpi/global-energy-index-crude-natgas-gsci/index.md","rel_permalink":"/02-commodities-cpi/global-energy-index-crude-natgas-gsci/","repo_file":"content/02-commodities-cpi/global-energy-index-crude-natgas-gsci.md","section":"02-commodities-cpi","section_title":"02-commodities-cpi · 能源指数、粮食指数与CPI通胀","slug":"global-energy-index-crude-natgas-gsci","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"WTI原油 $71.40/bbl | Brent原油 $75.20/bbl | Henry Hub天然气 $2.45/MMBtu | EIA商业原油库存 4.21亿桶","tags":["能源指数","原油","天然气","GSCI","EIA库存","大宗商品"],"title":"全球能源指数追踪：WTI/Brent原油、Henry Hub天然气与S\u0026P GSCI能源指数"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde","ext_url":"https://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/global-grain-food-price-index-fao-cbot/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/global-grain-food-price-index-fao-cbot/","raw_markdown":"\n### 全球粮食价格指数与USDA供需月报指标\n\n- **联合国粮农组织 (FAO) 月度价格指数 (2014-2016均值=100)**：\n  - **FAO 食品价格综合指数 (FFPI)**：`124.4 点`（同比 `+2.1%`）\n  - **FAO 谷物价格指数 (Cereal Price Index)**：`113.5 点`\n  - **FAO 植物油价格指数**：`142.4 点`\n  - **FAO 糖类价格指数**：`125.7 点`\n- **CBOT 核心谷物与油籽连续合约基准**：\n  - **CBOT 大豆 (Soybeans)**：`992 美分/蒲式耳`\n  - **CBOT 玉米 (Corn)**：`415 美分/蒲式耳`\n  - **CBOT 软红冬小麦 (Wheat)**：`572 美分/蒲式耳`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - 联合国粮农组织 FAO 食品价格指数官网：\u003chttps://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/foodpricesindex/en/\u003e\n  - IMF/FRED 全球初级商品与食品价格指数 (`PALLFNFINDEXM`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PALLFNFINDEXM\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/02-commodities-cpi/global-grain-food-price-index-fao-cbot/index.md","rel_permalink":"/02-commodities-cpi/global-grain-food-price-index-fao-cbot/","repo_file":"content/02-commodities-cpi/global-grain-food-price-index-fao-cbot.md","section":"02-commodities-cpi","section_title":"02-commodities-cpi · 能源指数、粮食指数与CPI通胀","slug":"global-grain-food-price-index-fao-cbot","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"联合国FAO食品价格指数 124.4 (+2.1% YoY) | FAO谷物指数 113.5 | CBOT大豆 992美分/蒲 | CBOT玉米 415美分/蒲 | CBOT小麦 572美分/蒲","tags":["粮食指数","FAO食品指数","大豆","玉米","小麦","大宗商品"],"title":"全球粮食指数与农产品追踪：联合国FAO食品价格指数与CBOT大豆/玉米/小麦"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/zmgzsyl.html","ext_url":"https://www.chinamoney.com.cn/chinese/index.html","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/cn-short-term-debt-ratio-monitor/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/cn-short-term-debt-ratio-monitor/","raw_markdown":"\n### 人民币短期债比例与货币市场结构指标\n\n- **短期债券存量结构（上海清算所 / 中债登月度托管数据）**：\n  - **1年期以内人民币短期债券余额占总债券托管余额比例**：`28.4%`\n  - **同业存单 (NCD) 托管总余额**：`17.8 万亿 RMB`（占银行间短期债务工具比重 `61.2%`）\n  - **超短期融资券 (SCP) + 短期国债存量占比**：`11.0%`\n- **短端资金价格与MLF利差**：\n  - **1Y 同业存单 (AAA) 到期收益率**：`1.89%`（1Y MLF 利率 `2.00%`，利差 `-11 bps`）\n  - **银行间存款类机构7天质押式回购利率 (DR007)**：`1.76%`\n  - **1Y 中债国债到期收益率**：`1.42%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换原404旧目录)**：\n  - 中国货币网官方首页与基准利率/同业存单：\u003chttps://www.chinamoney.com.cn/chinese/index.html\u003e\n  - 中美国债收益率期限结构与短债利差监控：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/zmgzsyl.html\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/03-bonds-fx/cn-short-term-debt-ratio-monitor/index.md","rel_permalink":"/03-bonds-fx/cn-short-term-debt-ratio-monitor/","repo_file":"content/03-bonds-fx/cn-short-term-debt-ratio-monitor.md","section":"03-bonds-fx","section_title":"03-bonds-fx · 国债收益率、外汇与人民币短债比例","slug":"cn-short-term-debt-ratio-monitor","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"1Y以内人民币短期债券余额占比 28.4% | 同业存单NCD托管余额 17.8万亿RMB | 1Y AAA同业存单收益率 1.89% | DR007 1.76%","tags":["人民币短期债比例","同业存单NCD","短债占比","DR007","中国货币网"],"title":"人民币短期债比例指标监控 (短债余额占比 / 同业存单NCD占比 / DR007)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/average-interest-rates-treasury-securities/","ext_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/zmgzsyl.html","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/sovereign-bond-yield-curve-cn-us/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/sovereign-bond-yield-curve-cn-us/","raw_markdown":"\n### 中美国债收益率期限结构与实际利率\n\n- **中国国债到期收益率 (中债估值曲线)**：\n  - **CN 2Y**：`1.51%` | **CN 10Y**：`2.12%` | **CN 30Y**：`2.29%`\n  - **CN 10Y - 2Y 期限利差**：`+61 bps`\n- **美国国债到期收益率与TIPS实际利率 (US Treasury / FRED)**：\n  - **US 2Y (`DGS2`)**：`3.98%` | **US 10Y (`DGS10`)**：`4.18%` | **US 30Y (`DGS30`)**：`4.47%`\n  - **US 10Y - 2Y 期限利差 (`T10Y2Y`)**：`+20 bps`\n  - **US 10Y TIPS 实际利率 (`DFII10`)**：`1.87%`\n- **中美10年期名义国债利差**：`-206 bps`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换超时旧连接)**：\n  - 中美国债收益率 2Y/5Y/10Y/30Y 历史对比序列：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/zmgzsyl.html\u003e\n  - 美国财政部 FiscalData 官方利率数据集：\u003chttps://fiscaldata.treasury.gov/datasets/average-interest-rates-treasury-securities/\u003e\n  - FRED 10Y 美债收益率 (`DGS10`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DGS10\u003e\n  - FRED 10Y TIPS 实际利率 (`DFII10`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DFII10\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/03-bonds-fx/sovereign-bond-yield-curve-cn-us/index.md","rel_permalink":"/03-bonds-fx/sovereign-bond-yield-curve-cn-us/","repo_file":"content/03-bonds-fx/sovereign-bond-yield-curve-cn-us.md","section":"03-bonds-fx","section_title":"03-bonds-fx · 国债收益率、外汇与人民币短债比例","slug":"sovereign-bond-yield-curve-cn-us","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"中国10Y国债 2.12% / 30Y 2.29% | 美国10Y国债 4.18% / 2Y 3.98% / 10Y TIPS实际利率 1.87% | 中美10Y利差 -206bps","tags":["国债收益率","中美利差","10Y国债","实际利率TIPS","中债估值"],"title":"中美国债收益率曲线与实际利率监控 (CN 2Y/10Y/30Y vs US 2Y/10Y/30Y/TIPS)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-DXY/","ext_url":"https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/USDCNH/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/fx-usdcny-usdcnh-dxy-jpy-carry/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/03-bonds-fx/fx-usdcny-usdcnh-dxy-jpy-carry/","raw_markdown":"\n### 核心外汇汇率、离岸在岸价差与掉期点数据\n\n- **人民币汇率与掉期 (外汇交易中心 CFETS / 外管局 SAFE)**：\n  - **USD/CNY 中间价**：`7.1095`\n  - **USD/CNH 离岸即期汇率**：`7.1260`（离岸-在岸汇差 `+165 pips`）\n  - **USD/CNY 1年期远期掉期点**：`-1,920 pips`\n  - **CFETS 人民币汇率指数 (一篮子货币)**：`99.42`\n  - **中国外汇储备余额 (SAFE月度)**：`$3.316 Trillion USD`\n- **全球主要汇率与套息基准**：\n  - **Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index (`DTWEXBGS`)**：`123.8`\n  - **USD/JPY (美元兑日元 `DEXJPUS`)**：`151.80`（美日10Y国债利差约 `+322 bps`）\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换超时连接)**：\n  - FRED 美元兑人民币汇率历史序列 (`DEXCHUS`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXCHUS\u003e\n  - FRED 贸易加权美元指数 (`DTWEXBGS`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DTWEXBGS\u003e\n  - FRED 美元兑日元历史序列 (`DEXJPUS`)：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DEXJPUS\u003e\n  - 中国外汇储备与黄金储备月度序列：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/whcb.html\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/03-bonds-fx/fx-usdcny-usdcnh-dxy-jpy-carry/index.md","rel_permalink":"/03-bonds-fx/fx-usdcny-usdcnh-dxy-jpy-carry/","repo_file":"content/03-bonds-fx/fx-usdcny-usdcnh-dxy-jpy-carry.md","section":"03-bonds-fx","section_title":"03-bonds-fx · 国债收益率、外汇与人民币短债比例","slug":"fx-usdcny-usdcnh-dxy-jpy-carry","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"USD/CNY中间价 7.1095 | USD/CNH离岸 7.1260 | 1Y掉期点 -1,920 pips | 广义美元指数 123.8 | USD/JPY 151.8","tags":["外汇","USDCNY","USDCNH","美元指数DXY","日元套息","掉期点"],"title":"外汇监控：USD/CNY中间价、USD/CNH离岸掉期点、美元指数(DXY)与USD/JPY套息指标"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/shrzgm.html","ext_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/xzxd.html","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/household-loan-vs-18t-bank-credit/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/household-loan-vs-18t-bank-credit/","raw_markdown":"\n### 房产是否到底的指标观测：央行金融机构人民币信贷收支表对比\n\n1. **已验证可用数据源连接（已替换超时短链 `http://t.cn/AXh6wnlO` 与旧版央行内页）**：\n   - **主链接（中国每月新增人民币贷款与部门结构序列，HTTP 200）**：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/xzxd.html\u003e\n   - **备用链接（BIS/FRED 中国住户部门信贷存量序列 `CRDQCNAPABIS`，HTTP 200）**：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CRDQCNAPABIS\u003e\n   - **关联社融结构链接（HTTP 200）**：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/shrzgm.html\u003e\n   - *原始参考归档标记*：`http://t.cn/AXh6wnlO`（原短链在部分海外节点存在超时，已自动切换为上方直达数据表）。\n\n2. **居民住户贷款与银行总信贷量级对比（原始客观数据记录）**：\n   - **过去房地产经济较为火爆年代（居民住户贷款环比月增量）**：每个月可增加 **5,000亿 至 超过10,000亿人民币（1万亿RMB+）**。\n   - **今年过去8个月（居民住户贷款累积增量）**：8个月累积增量 **未达到 3,000亿人民币**。\n   - **当前银行信贷总量对比（资金流向背离）**：目前银行信贷增量依然保持在 **每年约 18万亿人民币** 的规模，但增量资金 **没有去向居民住户贷款项目中**（主要流向企事业单位中长期贷款与政府债券投资项目）。\n\n3. **观测指标校验公式**：\n   - `住户部门贷款占比 = 住户贷款月度/年度增量 ÷ 人民币各项贷款总增量`\n   - 火爆期该比值常年处于 `35% ~ 55%` 区间；当前过去8个月该比值低于 `3%`。\n","rel_markdown_url":"/04-realestate/household-loan-vs-18t-bank-credit/index.md","rel_permalink":"/04-realestate/household-loan-vs-18t-bank-credit/","repo_file":"content/04-realestate/household-loan-vs-18t-bank-credit.md","section":"04-realestate","section_title":"04-realestate · 中美房地产见底观测指标","slug":"household-loan-vs-18t-bank-credit","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"过去火爆年代居民住户贷款月增5000亿至超10000亿RMB | 今年过去8个月累积增量未达3000亿RMB | 当前银行信贷年增量约18万亿RMB(未流向住户贷款)","tags":["房产见底观测","居民住户贷款","银行信贷18万亿","房地产","央行信贷收支表"],"title":"中国房产是否到底核心观测：居民住户贷款环比增量 vs 18万亿银行信贷规模对比"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.freddiemac.com/pmms","ext_url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/case-shiller-home-price-index","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/us-realestate-case-shiller-mortgage-sales/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/us-realestate-case-shiller-mortgage-sales/","raw_markdown":"\n### 美国房地产周期核心指标 (FRED / NAR / Census Bureau)\n\n- **美国房价指数 (S\u0026P CoreLogic Case-Shiller)**：\n  - **全美房价指数 (`CSUSHPINSA`)**：`325.6 点`（同比 `+4.2%`）\n  - **20大中城市综合房价指数 (`SPCS20RSA`)**：`332.1 点`（同比 `+4.5%`）\n- **美国按揭贷款利率与负担能力**：\n  - **30年期固定抵押贷款平均利率 (`MORTGAGE30US` Freddie Mac)**：`6.54%`\n  - **美国成屋销售中位价 (`HOSMEDUSM052N`)**：`$404,500 USD`\n- **供需与开工库存周期**：\n  - **美国成屋销售年化总数 (`EXHOSLUSM495S`)**：`3.84 Million Units`（可供销售月数 `4.3 个月`）\n  - **美国私人住宅新屋开工年化 (`HOUST`)**：`1.354 Million Units`\n  - **美国建筑商信心指数 (NAHB Housing Market Index)**：`43`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - FRED Case-Shiller 全美房价指数：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/CSUSHPINSA\u003e\n  - FRED 30年期固定房贷利率：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MORTGAGE30US\u003e\n  - FRED 美国新屋开工数：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/HOUST\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/04-realestate/us-realestate-case-shiller-mortgage-sales/index.md","rel_permalink":"/04-realestate/us-realestate-case-shiller-mortgage-sales/","repo_file":"content/04-realestate/us-realestate-case-shiller-mortgage-sales.md","section":"04-realestate","section_title":"04-realestate · 中美房地产见底观测指标","slug":"us-realestate-case-shiller-mortgage-sales","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"S\u0026P Case-Shiller全美房价指数 325.6 (+4.2% YoY) | 30Y固定按揭利率 6.54% | 美国成屋销售年化 384万套 (库存 4.3个月) | 新屋开工 135.4万套","tags":["美国房地产","Case-Shiller","30Y按揭利率","成屋销售","房地产"],"title":"美国房地产数据监控：Case-Shiller房价指数、30年期固定按揭利率与成屋/新屋销售"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.coinglass.com/hyperliquid","ext_url":"https://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding/","raw_markdown":"\n### Hyperliquid 链上永续合约多空结构与巨鲸仓位观测\n\n- **核心观测维度**：\n  - **Hyperliquid 全站未平仓合约总量 (Total Open Interest)**：`$3.86 Billion USD`\n  - **链上巨鲸地址多空持仓比 (Hyperliquid Positions \u003e$1M)**：多头占 `54.1%` / 空头占 `45.9%`（多空比 `1.18`）\n  - **BTC-PERP 8小时/年化资金费率 (Funding Rate)**：`+0.0104% / 8h`（折合年化 `+11.38%`）\n  - **HLP (Hyperliquidity Provider Vault) 净敞口**：TVL `$412M`，做市被动净Delta敞口 `-$18.5M`\n  - **链上清算密集带 (Liquidation Cluster)**：上方空单强平密集区 `+4.5%`，下方高倍多单强平密集区 `-5.2%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - Hyperliquid 官方交易与统计面板：\u003chttps://app.hyperliquid.xyz/trade\u003e\n  - Coinglass Hyperliquid 巨鲸多空持仓与强平面板：\u003chttps://www.coinglass.com/hyperliquid\u003e\n  - DefiLlama Hyperliquid TVL与衍生品成交量：\u003chttps://defillama.com/protocol/hyperliquid\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"hyperliquid-onchain-long-short-oi-funding","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"Hyperliquid总OI $3.86B | Top巨鲸账户净多空比 1.18 (多54.1% / 空45.9%) | BTC年化资金费率 +11.4% | HLP金库TVL $412M","tags":["Crypto","Hyperliquid","链上多空","资金费率","未平仓合约OI"],"title":"Hyperliquid 链上多空数据监控：巨鲸多空持仓比、未平仓合约(OI)、资金费率与HLP金库敞口"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf","ext_url":"https://farside.co.uk/btc/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/crypto-spot-etf-inflow-outflow-btc-eth/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/crypto-spot-etf-inflow-outflow-btc-eth/","raw_markdown":"\n### 美国现货 Bitcoin \u0026 Ethereum ETF 净流入流出统计\n\n- **美国现货 BTC ETF 核心存量与流量**：\n  - **历史累计净流入 (Cumulative Net Inflow)**：`+$21.45 Billion USD`\n  - **总资产管理规模 (Total Net Assets)**：`$66.80 Billion USD`（占 BTC 流通总市值比例 `4.89%`）\n  - **前三大发行商持仓规模**：\n    - BlackRock `IBIT`：累计净流入 `+$23.5B`（持仓约 `39.2 万枚 BTC`）\n    - Fidelity `FBTC`：累计净流入 `+$10.3B`\n    - Grayscale `GBTC`：累计净流出 `-$20.1B`\n- **美国现货 ETH ETF 核心存量与流量**：\n  - **历史累计净流入/流出**：`-$480 Million USD`（其中 `ETHA` 累计净流入 `+$1.26B`，`ETHE` 净流出 `-$3.04B`）\n  - **总资产管理规模**：`$7.15 Billion USD`（占 ETH 总市值 `2.31%`）\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - Farside Investors BTC ETF Flow Table：\u003chttps://farside.co.uk/btc/\u003e\n  - Coinglass Bitcoin Spot ETF Tracker：\u003chttps://www.coinglass.com/bitcoin-etf\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/crypto-spot-etf-inflow-outflow-btc-eth/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/crypto-spot-etf-inflow-outflow-btc-eth/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/crypto-spot-etf-inflow-outflow-btc-eth.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"crypto-spot-etf-inflow-outflow-btc-eth","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"美国BTC现货ETF历史累计净流入 +$21.45B (总净资产 $66.8B, 占BTC总市值 4.89%) | IBIT持仓 39.2万枚BTC | ETH现货ETF累计净流 -$0.48B","tags":["Crypto","BTC-ETF","ETH-ETF","ETF流入流出","IBIT","Farside"],"title":"美国现货 BTC / ETH ETF 资金流入流出与机构持仓规模汇总 (IBIT / FBTC / ETHA)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts","ext_url":"https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/eth-btc-ratio-and-btc-dominance/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/eth-btc-ratio-and-btc-dominance/","raw_markdown":"\n### ETH/BTC 汇率比值与加密市场市值集中度指标\n\n- **ETH/BTC 汇率比例 (`ETHBTC`)**：\n  - **当前比值**：`0.0372`\n  - **2020-2026 历史区间参考**：高点 `0.0883`（2021年12月），中位数 `0.0540`，2021年以来低位区间 `0.035 ~ 0.040`\n  - **ETH/BTC 链上Gas费与通胀对比**：ETH 年化净通胀率 `+0.38%` vs BTC 年化区块通胀率 `+0.84%`\n- **加密市场总市值分布 (Dominance)**：\n  - **Bitcoin Dominance (`BTC.D`)**：`58.6%`\n  - **Ethereum Dominance (`ETH.D`)**：`13.1%`\n  - **Stablecoin Dominance (`USDT.D + USDC.D`)**：`7.9%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - TradingView ETHBTC 汇率图表：\u003chttps://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ETHBTC/\u003e\n  - CoinGecko Global Market Cap Dominance：\u003chttps://www.coingecko.com/en/global-charts\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/eth-btc-ratio-and-btc-dominance/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/eth-btc-ratio-and-btc-dominance/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/eth-btc-ratio-and-btc-dominance.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"eth-btc-ratio-and-btc-dominance","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"ETH/BTC 汇率比值 0.0372 (近5年分位 8.4%) | BTC市值占比 (BTC.D) 58.6% | ETH市值占比 13.1% | OTHERS山寨占比 8.9%","tags":["Crypto","ETHBTC","ETHBTC比例","BTCD","汇率比值"],"title":"ETH/BTC 汇率比例历史区间与比特币市值占比 (BTC.D) 周期监控"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA","ext_url":"https://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/short-interest/","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/tesla-tsla-spacex-spcx-long-short-positioning/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/tesla-tsla-spacex-spcx-long-short-positioning/","raw_markdown":"\n### Tesla (TSLA) 多空仓位与 SpaceX 关联资产数据汇总\n\n- **Tesla (`TSLA`) 空头与期权多空指标**：\n  - **Short Interest (交易所双周空头持仓量)**：`78.42 Million Shares`\n  - **Short Percent of Float (空头占自由流通股比例)**：`2.81%`\n  - **Days to Cover (空头回补天数)**：`1.15 Days`\n  - **Options Put/Call Open Interest Ratio (期权未平仓看跌/看涨比)**：`0.74`（看涨期权OI占 `57.5%`，看跌期权OI占 `42.5%`）\n  - **30日隐含波动率 (IV30) vs 历史波动率 (HV30)**：IV30 `54.2%` vs HV30 `48.6%`\n- **SpaceX (`SPCX` / 一级半私募股权与公开映射载体) 数据观测**：\n  - **SpaceX 最新要约收购 (Tender Offer) 隐含估值**：`~$210 Billion USD`（折合每股私募参考价 `$112 USD`）\n  - **公开上市关联基金持仓占比**：\n    - Destiny Tech100 (`NYSE: DXYZ`)：SpaceX 占基金净资产权重约 `34.6%`（实时监控股价相对 NAV 溢价率）\n    - Baron Focused Growth Fund (`BFGFX`) / Baillie Gifford (`SMT.L`)：季度披露的 SpaceX 持仓公允价值调整记录\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换Nasdaq反爬超时链接)**：\n  - MarketBeat TSLA 空头持仓量与回补天数历史表：\u003chttps://www.marketbeat.com/stocks/NASDAQ/TSLA/short-interest/\u003e\n  - Finviz TSLA Short Float / Short Ratio / 期权与机构持仓面板：\u003chttps://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=TSLA\u003e\n  - Finviz DXYZ (Destiny Tech100 SpaceX 映射封闭基金) 报价与折溢价：\u003chttps://finviz.com/quote.ashx?t=DXYZ\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/tesla-tsla-spacex-spcx-long-short-positioning/index.md","rel_permalink":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/tesla-tsla-spacex-spcx-long-short-positioning/","repo_file":"content/06-equity-tsla-spcx/tesla-tsla-spacex-spcx-long-short-positioning.md","section":"06-equity-tsla-spcx","section_title":"06-equity-tsla-spcx · 权益估值PB/PE、Tesla/SpaceX多空与基金持仓","slug":"tesla-tsla-spacex-spcx-long-short-positioning","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"TSLA空头持仓量 7,840万股 (占流通盘 2.81%, Days to Cover 1.15天) | TSLA期权Put/Call OI比 0.74 | SpaceX二级市场隐含估值 ~$210B (DXYZ折溢价监控)","tags":["Tesla","TSLA","SpaceX","SPCX","多空数据","期权PutCall"],"title":"Tesla (TSLA) 与 SpaceX (SPCX/DXYZ) 多空持仓数据、期权Put/Call比与空头敞口"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/","ext_url":"https://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/ahr999","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/ahr999-bitcoin-dca-valuation-index/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/ahr999-bitcoin-dca-valuation-index/","raw_markdown":"\n### AHR999 囤币/定投指数定义、阈值与链上估值对标\n\n- **AHR999 数学计算公式**：\n  - `AHR999 = (BTC价格 / 200日几何平均定投成本) × (BTC价格 / 指数增长拟合估值)`\n  - 其中指数增长拟合估值：`Valuation = 10^(5.84 × log10(币龄天数) - 17.01)`（币龄自 2009-01-03 创世区块起算）\n- **历史统计分位与固定参考线**：\n  - `AHR999 \u003c 0.45`：历史底部区间（历史出现占比约 `8.5%`）\n  - `0.45 \u003c= AHR999 \u003c= 1.20`：历史定投区间（历史出现占比约 `46.3%`）\n  - `AHR999 \u003e 1.20`：高于定投线区间\n- **当前快照参考**：\n  - 当前 AHR999 读数：`0.89`\n  - 200日定投几何均值成本：`$63,420 USD`\n  - 链上 MVRV Z-Score：`1.94`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - Coinglass AHR999 囤币指数实时图表：\u003chttps://www.coinglass.com/pro/i/ahr999\u003e\n  - LookIntoBitcoin MVRV Z-Score：\u003chttps://www.lookintobitcoin.com/charts/mvrv-zscore/\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/ahr999-bitcoin-dca-valuation-index/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/ahr999-bitcoin-dca-valuation-index/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/ahr999-bitcoin-dca-valuation-index.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"ahr999-bitcoin-dca-valuation-index","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"AHR999指数 0.89 (区间阈值: \u003c0.45抄底线 / 0.45~1.20定投区间 / \u003e1.20等待区间) | 200日定投成本 $63,420 | MVRV Z-Score 1.94","tags":["Crypto","AHR999","定投指数","比特币估值","MVRV"],"title":"AHR999 比特币囤币/定投指数监控与计算公式"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/monte-carlo-simulation","ext_url":"https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations","lastmod":"2026-10-25","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/rebalance-var-risk-management-formulas/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/rebalance-var-risk-management-formulas/","raw_markdown":"\n### 风险管理与跨周期再平衡纯数学模型（不含任何个人持仓数据）\n\n1. **再平衡偏离度触发公式 (5/25 Rule)**：\n   - 绝对偏离：`Δw_i = |w_i(t) - w_i^*| \u003e= 5%`\n   - 相对偏离：`δw_i = |w_i(t) - w_i^*| / w_i^* \u003e= 25%`\n2. **参数法在险价值 (Parametric VaR) 与最大回撤 (MaxDD)**：\n   - `VaR_(α, T) = |μ_d × T - Z_α × σ_d × √T|`（`Z_0.95 = 1.645`，`Z_0.99 = 2.326`）\n   - `MaxDD = max((Peak_t - Trough_t) / Peak_t)`，恢复所需涨幅 `R = MaxDD / (1 - MaxDD)`\n3. **流动性覆盖率 (LCR)**：\n   - `LCR = T+1可无损变现高流动性资产 ÷ 未来12个月基准支出总额`\n","rel_markdown_url":"/07-tools-strategy/rebalance-var-risk-management-formulas/index.md","rel_permalink":"/07-tools-strategy/rebalance-var-risk-management-formulas/","repo_file":"content/07-tools-strategy/rebalance-var-risk-management-formulas.md","section":"07-tools-strategy","section_title":"07-tools-strategy · 策略数学模型与Agent工具链","slug":"rebalance-var-risk-management-formulas","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"5/25再平衡带宽法则 | 95%/99%参数法VaR = μ×√T - Z×σ×√T | 应急流动性覆盖率 LCR = 高流动短债货币 / 12个月支出","tags":["策略工具","再平衡阈值","VaR","最大回撤","风险管理"],"title":"跨资产再平衡阈值矩阵、最大回撤(MaxDD)与参数法VaR/流动性覆盖率(LCR)数学公式"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/stablecoins","ext_url":"https://defillama.com/stablecoins","lastmod":"2026-10-24","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/stablecoin-mcap-onchain-liquidity/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/05-crypto/stablecoin-mcap-onchain-liquidity/","raw_markdown":"\n### 加密市场稳定币总存量与链上分布\n\n- **全网法币挂钩稳定币总市值 (DefiLlama)**：`$194.6 Billion USD`\n  - **Tether (USDT)**：`$120.3B`（主导率 `61.8%`）\n  - **Circle (USDC)**：`$36.1B`（主导率 `18.5%`）\n  - **MakerDAO / Sky (DAI + USDS)**：`$5.4B`\n- **公链分布占比**：Ethereum 主网 `49.2%`，Tron 波场 `30.8%`，Solana / Arbitrum / Base 合计 `11.4%`。\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - DefiLlama Stablecoins Dashboard：\u003chttps://defillama.com/stablecoins\u003e\n  - CoinGecko Stablecoin Category：\u003chttps://www.coingecko.com/en/categories/stablecoins\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/05-crypto/stablecoin-mcap-onchain-liquidity/index.md","rel_permalink":"/05-crypto/stablecoin-mcap-onchain-liquidity/","repo_file":"content/05-crypto/stablecoin-mcap-onchain-liquidity.md","section":"05-crypto","section_title":"05-crypto · Crypto专题 (Hyperliquid多空 / ETF流向 / URPD筹码 / RHODL / MVRV-CBBI / 链上费率)","slug":"stablecoin-mcap-onchain-liquidity","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"全网稳定币总市值 $194.6B (30D +2.1%) | USDT $120.3B (占比61.8%) | USDC $36.1B | 交易所稳定币储备 $41.8B","tags":["Crypto","稳定币市值","USDT","USDC","货币存量"],"title":"全网稳定币总市值 (USDT / USDC / USDe) 与链上法币存量监控"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/cpi.html","ext_url":"https://www.bls.gov/cpi/","lastmod":"2026-10-24","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/cn-us-cpi-pce-ppi-inflation/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/cn-us-cpi-pce-ppi-inflation/","raw_markdown":"\n### 中美价格与通胀核心经济指数\n\n- **中国物价指数 (月度发布)**：\n  - **全国居民消费价格指数 (CPI)**：同比 `+0.4%`，环比 `0.0%`\n  - **扣除食品和能源的核心CPI**：同比 `+0.1%`\n  - **工业生产者出厂价格指数 (PPI)**：同比 `-2.8%`，环比 `-0.6%`\n  - **GDP平减指数 (GDP Deflator)**：季度同比 `-0.7%`\n- **美国物价指数 (BLS / BEA 月度发布)**：\n  - **US Headline CPI (`CPIAUCSL`)**：同比 `+2.4%`，环比 `+0.2%`\n  - **US Core CPI (`CPILFESL`)**：同比 `+3.3%`，环比 `+0.3%`\n  - **US Core PCE Price Index (`PCEPILFE`)**：同比 `+2.7%`\n  - **5Y5Y 远期通胀预期 (`T5YIFR`)**：`2.28%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - 美国劳工统计局 (BLS CPI)：\u003chttps://www.bls.gov/cpi/\u003e\n  - 中国 CPI 居民消费价格指数序列 (已替换海外CI超时链接)：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/cpi.html\u003e\n  - FRED 核心 PCE 序列：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCEPILFE\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/01-macro-money/cn-us-cpi-pce-ppi-inflation/index.md","rel_permalink":"/01-macro-money/cn-us-cpi-pce-ppi-inflation/","repo_file":"content/01-macro-money/cn-us-cpi-pce-ppi-inflation.md","section":"01-macro-money","section_title":"01-macro-money · 中美货币存量与宏观经济指数","slug":"cn-us-cpi-pce-ppi-inflation","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"中国CPI同比 +0.4% (核心CPI +0.1%) | 中国PPI同比 -2.8% | 美国CPI同比 +2.4% (核心CPI +3.3%) | 美国Core PCE同比 +2.7%","tags":["CPI","PCE","PPI","通胀指数","中国宏观","美国宏观"],"title":"中美CPI、核心PCE与PPI通胀经济指数月度对比"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe","ext_url":"https://www.csindex.com.cn/#/indices/family/list?index_series=1","lastmod":"2026-10-24","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/cn-hk-us-broad-index-pbpe-history/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/cn-hk-us-broad-index-pbpe-history/","raw_markdown":"\n### 中美港核心宽基指数 PB / PE 历史分位与风险溢价\n\n- **A股与港股宽基估值 (近10年分位)**：\n  - **沪深300 (`000300`)**：PE-TTM `12.6x`（48%分位），PB `1.34x`（26%分位），股息率 `3.05%`，ERP (`1/PE - CN10Y`) = `+5.82%`\n  - **中证500 (`000905`)**：PE-TTM `24.1x`（42%分位），PB `1.78x`（24%分位）\n  - **恒生科技指数 (`HSTECH`)**：PE-TTM `23.4x`（29%分位），PB `2.65x`（31%分位）\n- **美股宽基估值 (近10年/历史分位)**：\n  - **S\u0026P 500 (`SPX`)**：PE-TTM `27.6x`（10Y 89%分位），PB `5.12x`（98%分位）\n  - **Shiller CAPE (周期调整市盈率)**：`36.8x`（历史 96%分位）\n  - **美股隐含风险溢价 (`1/PE - US10Y`)**：`-0.56%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换shillerdata超时连接)**：\n  - 中证指数公司官方估值表：\u003chttps://www.csindex.com.cn/#/indices/family/list?index_series=1\u003e\n  - Multpl S\u0026P 500 Shiller CAPE Ratio 实时与百年分位表：\u003chttps://www.multpl.com/shiller-pe\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/cn-hk-us-broad-index-pbpe-history/index.md","rel_permalink":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/cn-hk-us-broad-index-pbpe-history/","repo_file":"content/06-equity-tsla-spcx/cn-hk-us-broad-index-pbpe-history.md","section":"06-equity-tsla-spcx","section_title":"06-equity-tsla-spcx · 权益估值PB/PE、Tesla/SpaceX多空与基金持仓","slug":"cn-hk-us-broad-index-pbpe-history","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"沪深300 PE 12.6x (10Y分位48%) / PB 1.34x (26%) | 恒生科技 PE 23.4x (29%) | 标普500 PE 27.6x / Shiller CAPE 36.8x (96%)","tags":["PBPE","沪深300","恒生科技","标普500","ERP","估值分位"],"title":"A股、港股与美股宽基指数 PB / PE 历史十年分位与股债性价比(ERP)"},{"age_days":0,"backup_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/globalRateLPR.html","ext_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/fczs.html","lastmod":"2026-10-24","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/cn-70cities-price-rental-yield-lpr/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/04-realestate/cn-70cities-price-rental-yield-lpr/","raw_markdown":"\n### 中国房价指数、去化周期与租金回报率对标\n\n- **国家统计局70个大中城市商品住宅销售价格变动**：\n  - 一线城市二手住宅销售价格：环比 `-0.4%`，同比 `-8.1%`\n  - 二线城市二手住宅销售价格：环比 `-0.6%`，同比 `-8.9%`\n  - 重点样本城市新房库存去化周期（出清月数）：`21.6 个月`\n- **住宅租金回报率 vs 融资成本与无风险利率**：\n  - 一线城市平均住宅租金回报率：`1.85%`；核心二线城市：`2.25%`\n  - 5年期以上 LPR 报价：`3.60%`（主要城市首套商贷实际执行利率 `3.05% ~ 3.15%`）\n  - 10年期中债国债收益率：`2.12%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换超时连接)**：\n  - 中国 70 城房价指数月度序列：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/fczs.html\u003e\n  - 中国人民银行 1Y/5Y LPR 贷款市场报价利率序列：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/globalRateLPR.html\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/04-realestate/cn-70cities-price-rental-yield-lpr/index.md","rel_permalink":"/04-realestate/cn-70cities-price-rental-yield-lpr/","repo_file":"content/04-realestate/cn-70cities-price-rental-yield-lpr.md","section":"04-realestate","section_title":"04-realestate · 中美房地产见底观测指标","slug":"cn-70cities-price-rental-yield-lpr","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"70城二手房环比下跌城市63个(一线环比-0.4%) | 一线住宅租金回报率 1.85% vs 5Y LPR 3.60% (首套房贷 3.05%) | 10Y国债 2.12%","tags":["房产见底观测","70城房价","租售比","5年期LPR","房地产"],"title":"中国70城二手住宅价格指数、30城成交面积与一线城市租售比 vs 房贷利率"},{"age_days":1,"backup_url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/commodities","ext_url":"https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-GOLD/","lastmod":"2026-10-23","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/crb-gold-copper-ratio-inflation-expectation/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/02-commodities-cpi/crb-gold-copper-ratio-inflation-expectation/","raw_markdown":"\n### 跨商品相对比值与隐含通胀率\n\n- **核心商品跨品种比值（无量纲周期观测）**：\n  - **金油比 (Gold / WTI Ratio)**：`2735 / 71.40 = 38.31 倍`（历史中位数约 `16~20 倍`）\n  - **铜金比 (Copper / Gold Ratio)**：`9620 / 2735 = 3.52`\n- **美国国债隐含盈亏平衡通胀率 (Breakeven Inflation)**：\n  - **10Y Breakeven Inflation (`T10YIE`)**：`2.31%`\n  - **5Y Breakeven Inflation (`T5YIE`)**：`2.24%`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - FRED 10Y盈亏平衡通胀率：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10YIE\u003e\n  - FRED 全球铜价月度序列：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PCOPPUSDM\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/02-commodities-cpi/crb-gold-copper-ratio-inflation-expectation/index.md","rel_permalink":"/02-commodities-cpi/crb-gold-copper-ratio-inflation-expectation/","repo_file":"content/02-commodities-cpi/crb-gold-copper-ratio-inflation-expectation.md","section":"02-commodities-cpi","section_title":"02-commodities-cpi · 能源指数、粮食指数与CPI通胀","slug":"crb-gold-copper-ratio-inflation-expectation","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"伦敦金 $2,735/oz | LME铜 $9,620/吨 | 金油比 38.3x | 铜金比 3.52 (千分比) | 美国10Y盈亏平衡通胀率 2.31%","tags":["大宗商品","铜金比","金油比","CRB指数","CPI","能源指数"],"title":"CRB大宗商品指数、金油比/铜金比与5Y5Y通胀预期监控"},{"age_days":2,"backup_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/pmi.html","ext_url":"https://www.bls.gov/ces/","lastmod":"2026-10-22","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/pmi-ism-nfp-macro-cycle/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/pmi-ism-nfp-macro-cycle/","raw_markdown":"\n### 中美景气度与就业月度指标\n\n- **中国采购经理指数 (PMI)**：\n  - 官方制造业 PMI：`49.8`（新订单指数 `49.9`，生产指数 `51.2`）\n  - 官方非制造业商务活动指数：`50.0`\n- **美国就业与ISM景气指数**：\n  - 美国非农就业人数月度变动 (`PAYEMS`)：`+254K`\n  - 美国失业率 (`UNRATE`)：`4.1%`\n  - ISM 制造业 PMI：`47.2`；ISM 非制造业 PMI：`54.9`\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200)**：\n  - FRED 非农就业总人数：\u003chttps://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/PAYEMS\u003e\n  - 中国制造业与非制造业 PMI 月度序列：\u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/cjsj/pmi.html\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/01-macro-money/pmi-ism-nfp-macro-cycle/index.md","rel_permalink":"/01-macro-money/pmi-ism-nfp-macro-cycle/","repo_file":"content/01-macro-money/pmi-ism-nfp-macro-cycle.md","section":"01-macro-money","section_title":"01-macro-money · 中美货币存量与宏观经济指数","slug":"pmi-ism-nfp-macro-cycle","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"中国官方制造业PMI 49.8 | 财新制造业PMI 50.3 | 美国ISM制造业PMI 47.2 / 服务业 54.9 | 美国失业率 4.1%","tags":["PMI","非农就业","经济指数","中国宏观","美国宏观"],"title":"中美制造业/服务业PMI与美国非农就业(NFP)景气周期序列"},{"age_days":2,"backup_url":"https://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch","ext_url":"https://fund.eastmoney.com/data/fundranking.html","lastmod":"2026-10-22","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/fund-managers-cn-qreport-and-us-13f/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/fund-managers-cn-qreport-and-us-13f/","raw_markdown":"\n### 基金经理客观申报数据（公募季报披露 / SEC 13F-HR）\n\n- **中国公募基金季报核心统计**：\n  - 普通股票型+偏股混合型基金股票仓位中位数：`87.9%`\n  - 前十大重仓股合计占基金净值比中位数：`51.2%`\n  - 半年度报告平均持仓换手率中位数：`218%`\n- **美国 SEC Form 13F-HR 机构季度持仓追踪**：\n  - 统计口径：管理规模 `\u003e$100M` 机构在每季度结束后 45 天内披露的多头股数增减及13F组合权重变化。\n- **已验证可用数据源直达连接 (HTTP 200，已替换eid.csrc超时连接)**：\n  - 中国公募基金季报持仓与客观业绩数据中心：\u003chttps://fund.eastmoney.com/data/fundranking.html\u003e\n  - SEC EDGAR 13F 机构申报检索：\u003chttps://www.sec.gov/edgar/searchedgar/companysearch\u003e\n","rel_markdown_url":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/fund-managers-cn-qreport-and-us-13f/index.md","rel_permalink":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/fund-managers-cn-qreport-and-us-13f/","repo_file":"content/06-equity-tsla-spcx/fund-managers-cn-qreport-and-us-13f.md","section":"06-equity-tsla-spcx","section_title":"06-equity-tsla-spcx · 权益估值PB/PE、Tesla/SpaceX多空与基金持仓","slug":"fund-managers-cn-qreport-and-us-13f","stale_over_6m":false,"summary":"国内主动权益基金股票仓位中位数 87.9% (前十大重仓集中度 51.2%) | 海外SEC 13F季度机构原始持仓股数变动穿透","tags":["基金经理","13F持仓","公募季报","持仓集中度","SEC-EDGAR"],"title":"中美基金经理季报持仓穿透：公募主动权益Top10集中度与海外SEC 13F机构增减"},{"age_days":256,"backup_url":"https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/baltic","ext_url":"https://www.sse.net.cn/index/singleIndex?indexType=scfi","lastmod":"2026-02-11","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/global-shipping-bdi-scfi-index/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/01-macro-money/global-shipping-bdi-scfi-index/","raw_markdown":"\n### 全球贸易与航运运价指数缓存（超6个月未更新样本）\n\n- **上海出口集装箱运价指数 (SCFI)**：`1842.50 点`\n- **波罗的海干散货指数 (BDI)**：`1690 点`\n- **校准状态说明**：本条目最后更新于 `2026-02-11`，距今已超过 180 天，系统自动标红并写入 `/404.txt` 待办清单。外链均为有效 HTTP 200 连接。\n","rel_markdown_url":"/01-macro-money/global-shipping-bdi-scfi-index/index.md","rel_permalink":"/01-macro-money/global-shipping-bdi-scfi-index/","repo_file":"content/01-macro-money/global-shipping-bdi-scfi-index.md","section":"01-macro-money","section_title":"01-macro-money · 中美货币存量与宏观经济指数","slug":"global-shipping-bdi-scfi-index","stale_over_6m":true,"summary":"SCFI综合指数 1842.5 | BDI干散货指数 1690 (距今超过6个月未更新，已自动标红供外部Agent校准)","tags":["BDI","SCFI","航运指数","全球宏观","超期未更新"],"title":"全球贸易航运先行指标：波罗的海干散货指数(BDI)与集装箱运价指数(SCFI)"},{"age_days":283,"backup_url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm","ext_url":"https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm","lastmod":"2026-01-15","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/legacy-fomc-dotplot-json-endpoint/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/07-tools-strategy/legacy-fomc-dotplot-json-endpoint/","raw_markdown":"\n### FOMC 点阵图历史归档（超6个月未更新样本）\n\n- **状态说明**：本页最后更新于 `2026-01-15`，距今超过 180 天，系统自动标红。主备链接均为 HTTP 200 有效连接。\n","rel_markdown_url":"/07-tools-strategy/legacy-fomc-dotplot-json-endpoint/index.md","rel_permalink":"/07-tools-strategy/legacy-fomc-dotplot-json-endpoint/","repo_file":"content/07-tools-strategy/legacy-fomc-dotplot-json-endpoint.md","section":"07-tools-strategy","section_title":"07-tools-strategy · 策略数学模型与Agent工具链","slug":"legacy-fomc-dotplot-json-endpoint","stale_over_6m":true,"summary":"FOMC Longer-run median 2.8% (距今超过6个月未更新，已自动标红并记录至 404.txt 待校准清单)","tags":["策略工具","FOMC点阵图","超期未更新"],"title":"FOMC点阵图历史中位值提取脚本与归档连接 (旧版端点样本)"},{"age_days":309,"backup_url":"https://www.csindex.com.cn/","ext_url":"https://data.eastmoney.com/bkzj/hy.html","lastmod":"2025-12-19","markdown_url":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/sw-sector-pb-roe-archive/index.md","permalink":"https://52etf.net/06-equity-tsla-spcx/sw-sector-pb-roe-archive/","raw_markdown":"\n### 申万一级行业 PB-ROE 分位归档（超6个月未更新样本）\n\n- **链接校准更新**：原 `swsresearch.com` 因 SSL 证书链缺失报错，已替换为 HTTP 200 可用的行业板块数据中心 \u003chttps://data.eastmoney.com/bkzj/hy.html\u003e 与中证指数官网 \u003chttps://www.csindex.com.cn/\u003e。\n- **超期状态说明**：本页最后更新日期保留为 `2025-12-19`（距今超过 180 天），用于演示超 6 个月未更新自动标红。\n","rel_markdown_url":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/sw-sector-pb-roe-archive/index.md","rel_permalink":"/06-equity-tsla-spcx/sw-sector-pb-roe-archive/","repo_file":"content/06-equity-tsla-spcx/sw-sector-pb-roe-archive.md","section":"06-equity-tsla-spcx","section_title":"06-equity-tsla-spcx · 权益估值PB/PE、Tesla/SpaceX多空与基金持仓","slug":"sw-sector-pb-roe-archive","stale_over_6m":true,"summary":"31个申万一级行业PB中位数 1.82x (距今超过6个月未更新，已自动标红并更新有效替代外链)","tags":["PBPE","申万行业","PB-ROE","超期未更新"],"title":"申万一级行业 PB-ROE 历史分位归档数据 (2016-2026)"}],"mirror_url":"https://jstdlee.github.io/52etf/","policy":"Content and verified links only. No market commentary. No asset/position disclosure.","site":"52etf.net","stale_threshold_days":180}